My posts are often positive and with forward looking possibilities but that does not mean that I do not see the risks so I have decided to share these with you and perhaps you can add to them or reassess them.
Perhaps the one which keeps me awake the most is the fifth on that list. I still do not understand how the company was able to report a $50M contribution in FY22 (Scott Richards) and turn that into a -$17M loss in the first half of 23 (Shaun O'Brien). The company explained it thus:
●Poor result, as flagged at AGM, attributable to the long winddown of channel inventories built in June 22 to launch new products / gainmarket share
●1HFY23categorised by competitive price pressure, one off GTN impacts on key products as well as other one time adjustments
●Methodology change on estimating CoPay accrual addresses timing issues on earnings recognition
If someone can explain what this is and how it came about, I'd be grateful.
Risk Assessment Possible Event Probability Consequence Legislation changes leading to either higher competition or lower prices Low V High WH product sales either plateau or slow down this year L to M Medium DTC Dermatology is copied by competitor Low High Large Product litigation Low V High Dermatology channel issues as per 1HFY23 Medium High Pressure on capital due to legacy issues (previous businesses) M to H Low Hostile takeover Low Medium Asset Impairments (as per last 7 years) Low V High Purchase of new products not already on market Low Medium Expansion of WH into other areas eg Oncology M Low Shareholder class action V High V Low Future Dividends paid next year Low Low Large purchase of business or products leading to high debt or capital raising Low Medium IPO in the US before company is profitable Low Medium
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