Risk-free return?

As pointed out by stardestr0yer in another forum, is Vitaco a likely risk-free return if purchasing at $2.07 today and holding until implementation of the Scheme?

SCHEME IS ACCEPTED
1. Purchase 7/09/2016 at $2.07
2. Vote on Scheme in November 2016
3. Scheme is accepted (most likely scenario)
4. Shareholders receive $2.25 per share upon implementation of Scheme in December 2016 (8.7% return)

SCHEME IS REJECTED
1. It is clear that Vitaco is worth at least $2.25 a share
2. Share price may retreat, but should return above $2.07 in the near term

Is it likely that the share price will move towards $2.25 as we approach November?

Any input is appreciated! The above is a hypothetical scenario and is proposed for discussion purposes only.