Risk - Myanmar Political Stability, page-10

A lot of ifs in this analysis- for the above to pan out, you need:

1. US rates going up by 2017 latest;
2. "hot money" flowing out on a net cumulative basis for the whole period from now until 2017;
3. A rising dollar (compared to what? Burmese currency? Malaysian ringgit? AUD?)
4. Pressure on real estate prices in Burma;
5. Prices lower than present, despite any improvements from now until 2017.

5 events all happening in tandem- even if one event is 80% probable, your cumulative probability is only 33%. Might as well bet on red in roulette.

I would just rather bet that UOS will make a decent profit from land development, and the corollary that if they cannot make a decent profit they will stop wasting money.