Risk Return

Well this looks like the Myer end of year sale (hopefully not every year), thanks to the passive fund managers.

These guys simply mirror an index and now that POH has been dropped from all the indexes they have to get out. I believe they have to be out by today but it may be tomorrow and as such they are dumping. The amounts that they hold in dollar terms are insignificant to them, so they just create destruction. You can see it with other small company share prices today as well. If you ever wondered how well your superannuation is being looked after - take a look. The order of in excess of 1 mil shares at 5.9 is in all probability a dummy to create pressure on the market, OR they are just plain stupid.

Do we go lower, maybe.... but this is the first higher volume day in quite some time and I wonder if it isn't the blow out that the SP has been needing. Usually lows are formed when people capitulate and dump their asset at any price and the increased volume creates this downdraft. Someone is doing the buying and I joined them this afternoon, so either bargain of the year or I need my head read (or both). Price rises happen for 1 of 2 reasons: more buying or less selling (simple really)

The company is going to be in a state of transition whilst the new CEO ascertains exactly what has, is and needs to happen in order to create shareholder value. This process should take in the order of 90 days, so we have another month roughly for that process to run. So in between then and now we may learn a little from:

1. Pain conference in Brisbane which starts this weekend
2. IAH announcements

After this time frame we should get a CEO presentation and of course the AGM
Second half of the year should provide some further information with regard to:

1. Elixia - sale price
2. TPM/ Oxycodone - PII trial results
3. TPM/ Oxymorphone - further study results for labelling and IND prep
4. TPM/ Oxymorphone - hopefully submission of IND

Obviously any of the above may go astray either in time frame or outcome but that is the nature of all business not just biotech, hence the better returns for the risk (or worse in case of failure).

Little surprises me in the markets as I have been around for a fair while now, it's hard to see a reason to sell here on a risk return basis.