pkc111 did ponder<quote>... up short term to 45 cents (this is...

pkc111 did ponder<quote>... up short term to 45 cents (this is conservative I feel given that it spent nearly 1 yr around 60c before GFC with much less trial evidence)</quote>
Much less evidence certainly, but also much fewer shares - the share price held 0.60 for a little while after the 2 for 5 rights issue in ... (seems so long ago) wasn't it July 2007?

Anyway after that issue, there were 440,000,000 (approx) shares.
The 1 for 2 issue earlier in 2009 took this up to about 660,000,000 and since then there was the insto + shareholders' cap raising which brings us to the present, a little shy of 850,000,000.

One could also argue there was a bit of irrational exuberance in the air.

As for the downside, if ATC Phase III were to disappoint, I suspect there's be much shrieking and mayhem as the sp plummets. It may well stabilise at about 0.06, but probably dip lower - depends on what could be salvaged from whatever the disappointment was. Also depends of course if there were to be any good news on the integrase front

Notwithstanding those caveats, the decrease in risk since 2007 is huge - it would be an anomaly if Phase III produced an outcome significantly at variance to extended Phase II (an anomaly with a very real, non-trivial percentage of probability certainly, but still anomalous).

HIV, always a moving target, hasn't yet escaped from the scope of Apricitabine nor, regrettably, has it met its anti-viral nemesis elsewhere.

In other words, I'm in agreement that 0.45 is a reasonable and conservative estimate of a successful post Phase III share price.

Then there's the ADO factor. It's quite possible that hysteria and mayhem (of a nice sort) would ensue on the release of a major licencing or royalty announcement.

Somebody used the phrase 'coiled spring' ...