risk vs reward . is its musical chairs, page-6

Pommytimbo - firstly great post.

I think your follow up post identifies one of the floors under this SP. Namely in the event that NLG defaults the pokies leases (and I think the overall pub leases) default to HLG. One of the vagaries of the pub sector is the enormous valuations of the intangibles - NLG has virtually no NTA's - and BNZ's security could pretty much evaporate with a default on the lease payments. The bank needs NLG to keep trading, if administrators are called in they act on behalf of all creditors albeit BNZ ranks first - but getting their money back will be long and painful and largely out of the bank's control. Better to ride the current management hard (they have a pretty good pub pedigree) and get them to sell the assets in an orderly manner according to the bank's timetable and valuations. You are spot on this is still a crap shoot - as I said in my only other HC post - this is definitely one for the punters.