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11:11
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Originally posted by jamarco:
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I'm an MYX long so don't take this as down-ramping. But aside from the good long term stories re Nuvaring and the new WH deal, there is a bit of risk remaining in the short term. In the FY results they called out 2 products that were driving the decline in generics - dofetilide and liothyronine. Dofetilide has been smashed by generic competitors and now only has $13m revenue (though still represents 5% of generics division sales) and liothyronine while up YoY was down 42% H2 vs H1 to $43m for the FY, suggesting that H1 was around $28m and H1 $16m. So based on this even if revenues hold at the H2 trend then there is already $11m decline expected this FY. Liothyronine at $43m makes up 19% of generic division revenues. To hazard a guess, there is every chance both products decline further and bring in a combined $25-30m - $25-30m lower than last FY. That's another 10% total decline on a total portfolio that declined 7% excluding dofetilide. This is a massive problem no?
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And I would say this is why the shorts are still piling in - there is a chance of further downside in the short term. Once FDA approval for Nuvaring comes through it will all be meaningless, but in the short term, who knows what happens...
(20min delay)