risked value .. up to spud?

Now that MEO has booked the Venus, has the farmin partner, and has the regulatory approvals the only real thing left to do is see if there is gas down there. Considering that the share price is also in a run seemingly up to the spud of A#1 then I thought that the risked value might come into play at this stage.

The risked value MEO put on the artemis project was $1.17 per share to the MEO share price (see ASX release: "Clarification to 2nd September 2009 Good Oil Presentation"), which at the time they were assuming a residual interest of 20% (see also release "Clarification to 2nd September 2009 Good Oil Presentation")
With residual ownership of 25%(?) [sorry can't remember off hand what they got from MOG] then the risked value of the A#1 prospect is about $1.23, right? If this is the case and I understand what a "risked value" actually means then do we expect the MEO shareprice to reach these levels "before" the results of Artemis are known? Hence is MEO currently undervalued by approx. 150% with respect to Artemis?
This seems to make sense to me (any comments would be appreciated) because if we look at it from the contrary point of view, that is If we all knew that the artemis project is going to be successful then we should obviously use the unrisked value of approx. $3.65 that is just add the value of the "known" reserve to the value of the company.