Risks with SVL?, page-70

finlay - thats a pretty economically 'tuned in comment' to make

though i would caution you that the US economic data could take up to another 6 months to really weaken

the US consumption behaviour has an amazing multiplier effect - for every dollar US consumption adds something like 37 more as it is respent through their economy. (im repeating that figure from hazy memory so it might not be quite right - but the gist is)

so - while the lead indicators on the economy - corporate profit , manufacturing and new housing starts (the ones that create strong jobs and higher incomes) can be pointing south - the lag indicators in consumption and existing housing sales can keep doing well for a long period. And consumption creates a lot more jobs than the other areas - though the work is far lower quality in security and pay

the FOMC will be inclined to hope the tail will wag the dog long enough for the dog to recover. thats historically been the case several times.

as for my background. 2 degrees and a bit over 20 years in financial markets