MNS 0.00% 4.2¢ magnis energy technologies ltd

Risks, page-21

  1. 1,109 Posts.
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    Thanks @Trommel for taking the time to try and respond to growing concerns, while i agree with some of your comments, there are other comments that you have made that are pure speculation, based on no evidence and you have come up with a different business plan on your own accord rather than go on the facts we have currently.

    points iIagree with,

    Yes there is a real push for EV's, huge money being spent and demand rising, noone is disputing that. You can say this is still the beginning which is fair enough. This goes with @Mucha123 comments saying we are at the start of the age of electrification.

    I'm not disputing the fact Magnis has cheap, safe, high quality batteries. My concern comes from progress made on these batteries and their entry to market and profitability.

    Battery makers who have already expanded as much as 40Gwh and are currently producing batteries, are still UNPROFITABLE, despite billions of dollars worth of sales, and in some cases demand rising upwards of 80%. The demand is there but money is not being made. EVs need to be cheap, and batteries make up the bulk of the cost. To sustain the demand batteries have to be made cheaply to harness the support from govts.

    So while @Mucha123 has pointed out some of the valuations of the battery makers are up there, if anything its inflated and overvalued. I'm not saying the market cap and share price doesn't have the ability to grow but I don't want to invest in a very capital intensive business that will be making very little margin. The market also agrees to me in some way or another. We have seen companies like LKE, VUL etc up multiple bags in the last year. These are the suppliers of raw materials, while Magnis is only up 70%. Regarding Magnis being clean and green, there are other companies out there doing the same. For example, another company I am invested in has trademarked the term Green Nickel.

    The $80 million in raw materials was not in a MNS announcement, it was from Im3ny themselves. Here is a slide showing 80 million dollars of raw materials was enough to produce only 1 Gwh, bearing in mind we will be producing 1.8m so logically they would need almost double this without taking into consideration that that 80m dollar figure was just before commodities absolutely skyrocketed.

    Lithium companies have signed agreements lately for lithium to be bought well above the spot price at the moment. So with all commodities exponentially rising this year due to EV demand you have to ask yourself who is benefitting from this? raw materails suppliers? yup. automakers? no. They are adjusting by teaming up with battery makers and now most of the big names are insourcing their own gigafactories. Magnis who are in battery making business can't operate without these materials and have no say on what price they pay. Who is going to get a better deal? someone with 500Gwh or someone with 1.8Gwh? Not to mention the billions of funding the big players have achieved which will enable them to hire the cream of the crop when it comes to developing new batteries/technology as time goes on.
    We are seeing multiple articles about VRBs, Iron batteries, variations of Lithium Ion batteries.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3647/3647174-e79a3a16cef8ddf5b5120fb9545e2113.jpg

    As you can see this is not one great company with all the specialties. Not only is Im3ny dependent on C4V, they are also dependent on PRIMET and others when it comes to technology for battery metals..


    "Nachu graphite mine project and the New York Gigafactory are not dependant on each other in any way".

    You are correct, they are not dependent on each other. How you can depend on a company to fire up a graphite mine and processing plant to deliver product when there is nothing there? I don't think you realize how capital intensive this will be. Steel has taken off, shipping costs have tripled, and we are seeing numerous acquisitions by mining companies in places that have existing infrastructure.

    "When Im3NY needs to buy graphite, lithium etc they will just buy it from suppliers in the USA. I'm sure the suppliers will make announcements once Im3NY makes some big orders next year"

    Surely you need raw materials before producing, and if your in full production at the start of 2022 you should already have deals in place with suppliers. big battery players have already done so.. There are a number of investments from battery makers in raw material producing companies and or mines.

    "the Gen1 C4V cells don't use Manganese so don't worry about its price - actually I am pretty sure they do.

    "Cost of batteries / cellsImperium3 haven't come out publicly and stated how much the cells are that they are going to be producing/selling""

    Of course not, why would they? most of the batteries they hope to sell haven't been developed yet.

    Managanese is only one of the raw materials, it is the most abundant and the cheapest, and the least volatile of any of the raw materials needed for batteries. However, it is high purity manganese sulphate that is used in batteries and so far less than 1% of all manganese is made into high purity sulphate or HPMSM. HPMSM as it is, is costly to produce and metallurgically not commercially viable from many manganese ore bodies.

    What makes you think Gen 1 doesn't contain manganese?

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3647/3647492-5ab843859265f088f046034c3fce12c6.jpg


    As you can see C4V are looking to get raw materials including manganese from Australia if Townsville goes ahead.

    Townsville production in 2022 "Frank P"

    "I think what may be happening here is the cells will be manufactured in our New York site and shipped to Townsville to be built into battery packs and products for sale locally in Australia. That's my guess anyway. It will serve as a proof of concept, provide jobs for locals and assist with financing the Townsville initial 6Gwh capability".

    We have different very perspectives on what this means. It is completely illogical to suggest battery packs will be manufactured in the NY plant and shipped to Townsville. After all, that would be a shop, not a gigafactory. It's very unclear why you believe this as there is no evidence to support it.

    Production means producing batteries which is what Im3 hope to achieve and that's why they have said they will be sourcing lithium and manganese from Australia.

    But isn't everything that can be acquired meant to come from the US? Does this mean if they set up a gigafactory in China they would use Chinese raw materials?

    Then there is this

    How many contracts/sales MOUs does Magnis have that are not binding and could be conditional based on being able to supply 300 or 400 Wh/kg?




    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3647/3647495-deb6b6294e1423edba1490663a4e926a.jpg

    At the end of the day I'd say any of these agreements are not binding and are overpromising. Maybe they will only be selling 200 Wh/kg to Seiki but what details do shareholders have of this?

    After all the Gen 2 that was meant to be shipped out to customers once in production doesn't exist and hasn't been talked about since with regards to development progress.



    No updated timelines on how close they are in achieving anything more than the Gen 1 (190 Wh/kg), let alone solid state.

    Updating timelines and progress is different to asking for specific prices, performance or patent related, sensitive content. This obviously shouldn't be shared for good reason.

    As you can see from above they have said they will produce solid state batteries this year. Another bold claim and no doubt, no further information.

    Agree the air permit was definitely a big step for Im3ny.

    Unfortunately, I don't have other risk documents per say but I have written in depth on other stocks potential and risks and how it aligns with the company strategy moving forward. I'm not normally one to write negative bias or downramp stocks. Magnis has offered up the opportunity for people to question them so I don't believe I have been unfair in my criticism.



 
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