First, it's pleasing to see the comment in the Blue Gem report about share price:
"We find it strange that the share price has moved contrary to the positive movements in the variables driving up the implied fair value of Renergen"
As
@WolfonWallst points out, Blue Gem haven't made any changes to the previous reserves, so their estimates show the helium running out in FY26. Given companies have signed up for 10 and 15 years, there's a clear expectation that the reserves are going up some time between now and then. That's probably fair enough since what they've posted are the current numbers and we're waiting for new numbers from Sproule.
However, I will say is looks like report was prepared some time ago because it doesn't account for the CR which occurred in June. The FY22 issued shares hasn't been updated, yet shares have been issued.
I'm also taking the future projections with a grain of salt, since the numbers for phase 2 don't look likely to me.
Take FY23 production for example. That's Apr '22 to Mar '23, the first full year of Phase 1 in operation, after one quarter in operation for FY22.FY23 shows 750000 GJ LNG and 23298 mcf Helium. Now a GJ of LNG is 0.9464 mcf but for simplicity I'm just going to divide the helium by the LNG to get a ratio, which is 3.1%. Ok, so far so good, that's about the expected level.
Now, go to FY26 phase 2, which shows 5400000 GJ LNG and 776596 mcf He. Doing the same calculation comes out as 14.4%. So either, Blue Gem expect the concentration of helium to increase from approx 3.1% to 14.4%, or a lot of natural gas is getting lost.
Looking at it another way, FY26 shows 5400000 GJ LNG in phase 2 compared to 750000 GJ in FY23 for phase 1, a ratio of 7.2 times as much production under ramped up phase 2 compared to phase 1. For FY26 helium production the model shows 776596 mcf He compared to 23298 in FY23, a ratio of 33.3 times as much production. Again, this shows the helium production going up disproportionately to the LNG.
I was just trying to get a bead on the scale increase Blue Gem were forecasting from Phase 1 to Phase 2, but I don't think I've gained anything from those numbers.
(20min delay)