Thought it was time to check back in as last time I did RLT had started its pullback and we're sitting right on the LT support as previously mentioned around $2. Been nothing to post about up until now but yesterday did get me a little excited after finally seeing signs of the proper pushdown.
Have watched over the past week or two as the sp was massaged around to set up yesterdays drop.
After the sp made a beeline down to the LT support it seemed to stop just short leading everyone to believe the bottom was in (false bottom outlined on chart).
Once the market participants thought the sp had bottomed you could see one by one the buy orders move up through the price points. And just like that, one by one they got taken out at a higher price thus clearing the way (and any buyers out) for the MM to go fishing for stops and weak/impatient holders.
Once everyone had their chance to buy the recent low of $2.05 (previous Monday) this level was retested on Monday (this week) when the sp dropped to $2.06.
Looks like the MM was happy to have drained all the buyers out so decided it was time for a good old fashioned tree shake.
Yesterday looked to be just that and if it is then get ready for the reversal as the pushdown/shakeout is usually the final signal before any proper run. This can be done over a single trading session or may be dragged out over a few.
Definitely looked positive to finish on support yesterday but as always we'll need confirmation in next trading sessions...
The amount of news due over the coming weeks would say from an FA point of view we are good to go and I believe the TA side of things is finally ready too.
I'll leave you with one final thought that seems to have passed over a few (but I barely read hc so perhaps not?)
Obviously the story in the AFR was pretty negative seeing as how it all came out and the leaked plans for a capital raise on the cards. But you guys understand how CR raises go, right?
You understand that the sp is usually pushed up hard only to then be 'discounted' for everyone to feel like they've got a bargain.
Even with an artificial push higher you will almost always see CRs done at an absolute premium to its recent price range to stop too much dilution...
Well the sp was at $2.75 when Stefano came out with the clarification ann to say there will most likely be a CR but not yet...
All I saw when I read that was there is a potential CR in the future but if we have one it will be when we are above $2.75 cause we are trading too low right now...
(20min delay)