LOL. You know, on 27th January I predicted (somehow) with uncanny accuracy what XMJ would do - at the time, I just thought it was what it might do, now its done it. On 6 March, I somehow did the same for XJO. They both went exactly where I thought they might and on the dates I thought they would. You remember my last chart post predicting a fall?
RNU has been a real challenge trying to predict. I sometimes get it pretty right and others a bit off. Maybe just too invested in it and unable to step back far enough to look through unbiased eyes. Traditionally I dabble with VSA, MA, trend lines and some simple patterns. Towards the end of February, I tried Gann and it has pretty well summed up what we see happening with the SP. Not spot on but it's giving a plausible scenario for resistance and supports. The main thing at this point in time is macro. Just to be clear I'll say it again....MACRO!. There are so many external influences and also internal to company in terms of perceived progress. I think another challenge for RNU is how opaque the battery storage graphite market is, also that current demand for PSG/natural graphite cannot easily be determined, just assumed based on calcs of battery chemistry and that it's a relatively new industry.
To that end, I try to understand where the SP might be based on charts. Charts alone cannot paint an accurate picture as IMHO the fundamentals are extremely important especially where RNU is in its growth phase. But, charts can give us a bit of an idea where the SP could be heading. At 350 in December, my thought was, too soon, too fast, take some profits. I didn't because I thought I saw the bigger picture where RNU could be. In January at 280, I thought the same thing, but I held on - admittedly I did sell a very very small parcel for some pocket money .. and bought another motor bike...actually 2 LOL. Yes, I have a problem with bikes. Call me bikemad.
On to the more serious stuff then.
I read the Gann box and fans as a series of resistance and supports based on time relative to the major move which presented a top and bottom and duration (time). The Gann box is similar to Fibs in that it shows % of the move, but it includes time thus uses both the X and Y axis of the chart. I think most people could look at this chart below and compare the price movement with where the fans show S & R. What's uncanny about Gann fans is they are drawn at the beginning of a move only. The fan is drawn in the Gann box which uses a 1:1 ratio of the price movement to time. The formula the chart uses to draw the fan does the rest. IE, there are only 2 points when drawing the fan, at the start of the move (bottom left or top left) and at the end of the duration (based on price move over time) which is at the top right and bottom right. You'll see that RNU's price movement has followed the resultant trend lines reasonably accurately.
All that said, here's my call: current support 200 (rising 4/1 line). current resistance 220 (25% gann box), if this falls, 225 is next on the rising 2/1 trend. None of the technical indicators standout and we just bounced down from the 20d SMA. From volume perspective, I really like how Monday looked, it was very strong in a shot (replace the o with i) market. What is prominent about this chart is the 31/March where the 61.8% time indicates some change will happen. My hope is SP will hit 230. I however am very aware of the macro picture which keeps my hope in check.
Some on this forum have speculated we'll see some anns possibly with offtakes. Could just be irony but my gut tells me this could be the change predicted above which if it occurs will have a huge impact on RNU's MC.
So, lots of fluff in this post. I'll leave it to better people to look at the chart - you be the judge of Gann and how accurate it's been for RNU's SP prediction. BTW, it predicted the SP could test 185 which it nearly did 16th March.
Still holding. Good luck everyone, here's the chart. Last thing, I think RNU is in an accumulation phase and the next move will be up. Looking forward to what the 31st brings.
(20min delay)
