The following calculations are my own estimates of RNU revenue and cashflow, but based on information published by the company. You are encouraged to do your own research and calculations.
I've independently calculated revenues based on data in company announcements. My results are within 3% to 4% of revenue data provided by the company (see section at bottom of this post). Unfortunately there are no detailed research reports available so I've provided my worksheet below.
The spherical graphite operation increases overall life of mine (23 year) revenue by $2.1B. That's an increase of 63% compared to an operation just producing flake concentrates (revenue $3.31B ).
Taking data from the above announcements to the ASX, I've estimated revenue for the following two scenarios.
Scenario 1: Graphite Concentrate Production
Two-stage Flake Graphite Production Ramp-up.
Stage 1 - Years 1 to 3 for 21,600 tonnes per annum of graphite concentrate production
Stage 2 - Years 4 to 23 for 123,000 tonnes per annum of graphite concentrate production
Scenario 2: Graphite Concentrate Production + Spherical Graphite Production
Two-stage Flake Graphite Production Ramp
Stage 1 - Years 1 to 3 for 21,600 tonnes per annum of graphite concentrate production
Stage 2 - Years 4 to 23 for:
60,000 tonnes per annum of graphite concentrate feedstock production for Spherical Graphite operation
63,000 tonnes per annum of graphite concentrate for sales
30,000 tonnes per annum of spherical graphite
30,000 tonnes per annum of recarburiser by-product
Summary of Results
For both scenarios I've assumed a 5% mineral royalty applies for the production of Graphite Concentrates from mined flake graphite. I've assumed that mineral royalty does not apply for concentrates used as feedstock to avoid double application of the mineral royalty ( please correct me if this assumption is wrong ). I've applied a 30% company tax on any profits from production.
My independently calculated revenue figures roughly agree for both the stand-alone spherical graphite and the integrated spherical graphite operations ( a 3% to 4% difference in the results ).
