Aureis and slappi, why are you assuming that he has such a logical arguement which is based on data. As pointed out some data such as unoccupied is based on census collectors visists and no one home , yet Keen and Bubblepedia use this as a value to determine vacancy or oversupply. Keen uses a historice average with out adjusting for structiral changes that have occurred. a very big no no for a statistician using data. The recourse nature of the loans means that even with negative equity, the mortgagee is still liable so if they can afford they will continue paying the mortgage. Keen assumes that once negative equity is achieved, people will, as they do in the US, mail in the keys.
Guys, again prices will fall, but not the 40% keen is argiung based on his so called 'reliable' stats.
Any stats student will tell you that keen is misrepresenting his stats as he is taking in the raw form and extrapolating
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