re: roc announcement/ production my thoughts on Tiof is that...

re: roc announcement/ production my thoughts on Tiof is that it's a goer, but towards the end of a list of Woodside projects.

Three more possible worries between now and Chinguetti production are

1) drill results - one can certainly hope for something, but can't really expect anything less than disappointment
2) Woodside's reserves estimate for Tiof

3) news sinking in that there's an immanent hiatus to drilling (admitedly in some respects it'd be nice for HDR just to make some money not spend it for a change, but I'm very disappointed by the management's failure to disclose the news to the market)

Of these Woodside's reserve estimate on Tiof will have the largest effect on sp. Any significant downgrade, for their own reasons, and which might just help in their position with gas negotiations with the Mauritanian Govt, would not be good for HDR holders. Conversely of course, if there's no downgrade the sp might even head north. Unfortunately it's pretty risky hanging in considering the conservatism WPL has expressed abt Mauritania. (One may wish they'd pulled out, not AGIP)