Hi Spec Your EV figure would be spot on if you recognise the...

Hi Spec
Your EV figure would be spot on if you recognise the cash value of inv in RSC so far . importantly ROC reserves are all producing and thus should be given a bigger value that non developed reserves
Why? Let take AWE as an example what re the differences
Rocs reserves provide immediate cash thus from a DCF point of view a lot better
AWE Undeveloped reserves have risk of project costs blow outs
AWE undeveloped filed has Risk of fields underperforming
Risks of reserve downgrades
and ofcourse the risk of getting into production in lower oil price environment , and potentially the double whammy of being in a debt only to find cash flows are lower than expected

AWE is cheap on paper, and so is CUE , TAP, HZN etc etc but again Roc attracts me because i think RSC value isn't included, core value of producing assets is about 25%-30% higher and upside from exploration drilling is very significant with Roc almost free carried. That means despite the ability to add to reserves in a big way, the net cost to Roc will be sub 8-10 million USD which is great to have all that upside with negligible impact on cash-flow

i guess my conclusion of why i chose Roc is i like the conservative balance sheet and production profile, it gives me a sense of more capital security. I have seen companies with debt or bad timing of projects suffer immeasurably, and although the look great on pear one day, a chance is commodity price, or blow out on project and it all changes o quickly. Roc doesn't have those risks