Haaaang on, dont let this bronco throw you. The ground down...

Haaaang on, dont let this bronco throw you. The ground down there is awful hard. The market is reacting to short term stimuli as it always does. Dig your knees in hard and ride the rhythm. Had a bang on the butt as you came down? Now shes going to do it again, up? When that rise comes its going to hit hard, unless you anticipate it.
These are volatile markets. The oil price is still very high, after going to what is historically a freak peak.
There are basically four components in measuring an economic time series. Trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular. TCSI. In sort of Mickey Mouse analysis, having no precise figures, the TREND is up-growing population, economic activity, harder and more expensive to and find oil, underinvestment in exploration, transport and refining infrastructure over many years, CYCLE is down in the market after a high, SEASONAL is a bit down due to the northern hemisphere summer break and the IRREGULAR or wild cards are suddenly below average but look like they could go high with more trouble in Georgia, re the pipeline from Baku, the US cyclone season, Nigeria, Russian dramas etc.How would sanctions on Russia hit the market? Could happen tomorrow.
Right now it looks to me that T is up, C is down, S is down and I is down.
Soon most likely T will stay up and moderate somewhat, as it is now, C will stay down, S will go up, as the holidays finish later this month, and I could do anything. (irregular I mean not me, nobody cares what I do)
Odds suggest that the probability of further falls is less than even and rises more than even. No guarantees , but the dice are always a bit loaded. This time towards the upside for ROC. Maybe not heaps, but up. But no guarantees, were talking odds here not certainties. The hoss has a mind of its own. Its had a big feed of oats.
Phew! Wild ride.