"In terms of supply of rock phosphate over the next 3 or 4...

"In terms of supply of rock phosphate over the next 3 or 4 years, significant expansion of mine capacity across the globe is expected. China's rock phosphate capacity is foecast to increase by around 15 million tonnes by 2012/13, whileadditional capacity of nearly 10 million tonnes each in the Middle East and South America is forecast over the same period/ This equates to increased capacity of at least 35 million tonnes. We estimate that even if global demand for rock phosphate grows by 4% per annum in coming years (after a pull-back in 2009), only an additional 20 million tonnes are likely to be needed by 2013"

http://www.anz.com/documents/economics/ANZ_Fertiliser_Market_11May2009.pdf

In other words the forecast that supply will exceed demand by 15 million tonnes.