Rough calculations from further reading.....Current M/Cap is...

Rough calculations from further reading.....

Current M/Cap is 655M

Expected production 2009 is 3k tons....
@13 per kg=39M cashflow
say`20 per kg by then =cashflow 60M

Cost per kg I'm guessing $3=...could be more.

=9M costs

so 1st year prod. profit of roughly 50M (before tax).

production expected to rise to 1500 tons over 5 years...so potential profit in 2014 could be (at 30 a kilo) 400 M.....(assuming costs still $3 a kilo)
At P/E of 10 could justify M/Cap of 4B.
Allow some dilution to 700M shares fully diluted = share price of $5.70

According to these figures it could make the $5 level, but perhaps shouldn't until 2014?

Compare figures of Baja mining which will have similar M/Cap to LYC's now (after capex of 500M) will have profit of 700M after 1st year production.

Or other near-term miners with M\Caps under 100M that will have similar cashflow to LYC in 1st year.

Unless I am missing something (entirely possible) this doesn't look like a great buy at this stage IMHO.

Any thoughts?