The long road to Israel’svery good monthWalter Russell Mead
Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump, Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan at the White House after the signing of the Abraham Accords. Picture: AFP
Not sinceMay 1948, when the US and the Soviet Union recognised the state of Israel inthe critical weeks of its war for independence, has Israel had a diplomaticmonth like this. On August 13, the United Arab Emirates and Israel signed anagreement to normalise relations, with the formal ceremony held on Tuesday(Wednesday AEST) in Washington with Donald Trump. Last Friday Bahrain followedsuit. The Palestinian Authority, holding the rotating chair of the Arab League,introduced a resolution condemning the UAE move at a Zoom session of Arabforeign ministers, but in a shocking departure from past practice, the motionfailed to pass. On Sunday another Arab nation, Oman, issued a statement ofsupport for Bahrain’s decision to normalise relations.
Meanwhile,defying pressure from the EU and in exchange for Israeli recognition ofKosovo’s independence, Kosovo became the first Muslim-majority country in theworld to agree to place an embassy in Jerusalem in another Trump-brokered deal.(The status of a similar pledge from Serbia isn’t clear.)
WithSaudi Arabia allowing flights from Israel to the UAE to pass over its territoryand Morocco reported to be close to allowing direct flights to the Jewishstate, something of a tipping point seems to have been reached in the MiddleEast. Resentment of Zionism and sympathy for the Palestinians will no longer beallowed to interfere with what embattled Arab rulers see as a vitalrelationship.
Thesechanges are evolutionary rather than revolutionary. Arab opposition to Israel’sexistence has never been as unanimous or implacable as casual observerssometimes assume. Geopolitically, conservative Arab states have long understoodthat their interests and Israel’s are connected.
Thestrongest force in international politics is driving the change: fear. The Arabworld as a whole is confronting its greatest crisis since the collapse of theOttoman Empire. Iraq and Syria, once pillars of Arab nationalism and strength,can barely hold themselves together. Yemen and Libya are sunk in bitter civilwars. Egypt, whose economy is staggering as the pandemic slashes its incomefrom tourism and trade, can barely manage its own security, much less exportstability to the rest of the Arab world. Lebanon, for so long a financial andcultural capital of the Arab world, suffers from a failing state andHezbollah’s heavy hand.
Even thewealthy Gulf oil states fear for their economic future. American fracking islikely to keep oil prices low even when the global economy recovers from thepandemic, and with pro-Green New Deal Democrats leading in US polls, thepressure from the West on fossil fuels seems likely to grow. What limits aPresident Joe Biden would place on fracking likely wouldn’t cut domesticproduction enough to raise oil prices significantly. The Gulf states mustdiversify from hydrocarbons or wither away, and they know it.
On top ofall this, the American withdrawal from the Middle East keeps gaining momentum.The Trump administration continues to push to reduce US forces in Iraq andAfghanistan, while a Biden administration would seek to revive the nuclear dealwith Tehran while distancing itself from Saudi Arabia on human-rights grounds.
Behindall these worries lie the real terrors of the Arab world: Turkey and Iran.
MuslimBrotherhood leaders fleeing Egypt have found a haven in Turkey, and many Arabsbelieve that Ankara’s ambitions pose a greater long-term threat to Arabindependence than Tehran’s.
In theshort term, Iran, which hopes that a Biden election would lead to open tradewith the West, poses what Gulf Arab leaders see as an existential threat —especially with America looking to reduce its regional commitments.
The morethe US withdraws, the greater the value of Israel to the Sunni Arab world.Israel, growing numbers of Arab leaders believe, is the only country with boththe will and the means to help the Arab world defend itself from regionalthreats — and the only country with enough political support in America toensure that Arab pleas for help will not be utterly disregarded.
Beyondthat, more Arabs are beginning to see the advantages in working with Israel.
Israel isnot, as many Arabs once believed, a fragile artificial society held together byUS support. It is by any measure the most successful state in the Middle Eastwith the most technologically advanced economy in the region. Chinese, Russian,Japanese, Indian and American military leaders all want the benefits of Israelitech.
Timingaside, the Arab rapprochement with Israel is no pre-election stunt staged tohelp Donald Trump. It reflects a sober and serious response to realities thatno Arab state can ignore.
As amilitary and intelligence partner, as a diplomatic force multiplier, as atrading partner, as a source of investment and of development expertise, Israelis too valuable to the Arab world to be relegated to the status of a regionalpariah.
It hasearned its place in the Middle East.
The WallStreet Journal
