"The somewhat confusing announcement today was met with a...

"The somewhat confusing announcement today was met with a shoot-first-ask-questions-later response. This is understandable. But the 532 person study included 40 per cent of patients where the disease had already spread outside of the liver. Had the trial included only patients with cancer limited to the liver, then it’s highly likely we would be looking at a very different announcement to that made today."

The above is incorrect...  the study was based on liver only or liver predominant colorectral cancer metastases.. in other words as a first line treatment with chemo for patience who have developed cancer in the column and spread to the liver or mostly to the liver their is no benefit.. So it was based around the liver .. yes it does include outside liver but most of it in the liver ...

Most liver cancer is secondary hence it would of great benefit to sirtex if they could show that as a first line treatment it could limit the cancer spreading.. It will open up its market significantly..

The second endpoint is positive as may open up the market for first line treatment for cancer derived from the liver .. meaning the cancer started there and has not spread.. Market not as large ... The key is how significant.. there are different levels...

So its still a 50/50 proposition..

You will need to work out how bi a market is their for liver initiated cancer per year and  make assumption that Sirtex can get a certain market share over time  based on how significant...

At the moment you can only go off the current market growth if you want to get in...