Roger Montgomery, page-84

morning star report.... I concur with this..

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Since the full-year results release back in August, shares in Ainsworth Game Technology have weakened considerably. This has been driven by both the disappointing fiscal 2014 earnings relative to bullish consensus expectations and management's reluctance at the time to provide guidance for the new year. The market's fear was partly realised when the company flagged a lower fiscal 2015 first-half profit, year-on-year, at today's annual general meeting.
The expected decline is perhaps not surprising given the phenomenal and, in our opinion, unsustainable growth seen in Victoria in recent periods, up 84% in fiscal 2014. This, combined with the adverse timing of new product approvals in New South Wales and Queensland, is expected to result in a 30% year-on-year slump in revenues from the Australian division in the first half.
Nonetheless, and reflecting the intra-period volatility of gaming machine earnings, full fiscal 2015 profit is expected to be up, as new domestic product approvals flow through in the second half. This is likely to be further aided by continuing robust growth from the international operations (especially the Americas), with the weakening Australian dollar potentially providing another earnings tailwind.
We have maintained our earnings forecasts, with fiscal 2015 net profit after tax forecast to be up 4%. However, we note that consensus numbers are 6% to 8% higher than our estimates, implying some market downgrade risks. Our AUD 3.90 fair value estimate is unchanged.
Shares in Ainsworth Game Technology are trading well below our fair value estimate. Short-term concerns have provided much ammunition for the bears. However, the fundamentals remain strong and we reiterate our narrow-moat rating on the company—one that is underpinned by 163 unique jurisdictional licenses to manufacture and sell electronic gaming machines in Australia, the United States and seven other countries"