This was the section I posted in the other thread yesterday. While I agree with some of the comments, I don't think the comment about the NGL price is right.
Here's how I calculated it based on the 8/3/11 ASX announcement:
NPV(0) for 2P = $839.95m
Oil = 560605 x 93.61 = $52.48m
Gas = 57695078 x 4.59 = $264.82m
Therefore the difference has to be made up by the NGLs
ie 522.65m / 11918552 = $43.85 which is the received price per barrel of NGL (which reflects the higher propane than ethane in the NGL (I think))
The price received for NGL in the post is a factor of 2 out?
But I agree the schedule could be slipping at the moment which will only get worse unless they get another frac crew and it also doesn't account for the fact that if you did the same analysis based on the previous reserves report AUT would surely look even worse
rogermontgomery.com, page-3
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