If the stock market holds up until November, Obama will be re-elected. If we see a decline in the stock market it will be very close. A crash and Obama is gone - regardless of who is running against him;
Professor Robert Prechter, founder of Elliot Wave International, recently published a study titled Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections: A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results.
Here's a quick summary of Prechter's findings:
The results are consistent with socionomic voting theory, which includes the hypotheses that (1) social mood as reflected by the stock market is a more powerful regulator of re-election outcomes than economic variables such as GDP, inflation and unemployment and (2) voters unconsciously credit or blame the leader for their mood.
