We have known for years ( literally ) that this problem has been coming.
There has been no policy direction on the steady implementation of renewables into the grid.
Instead we have political standoffs between state and federal resulting in SA getting themselves in trouble years ago and Vic calling Engie's bluff on Hazelwood.
On top of that we have local government allowing too much renewable development in areas that just aren't ready for it.
With a considered, flexible long term plan we could have managed this way better. Including requiring grid upgrades in specific areas to absorb the growth of rooftop solar. It's not that hard to look at the data from domestic installation, review the infrastructure where they are located, and develop infrastructure plans ahead of time. Thus taking the pressure off utilities.
This would also make it easier for fossil generators to manage their business.
We know rooftop solar is going to continue to grow. It's not going away and will only become better and a more important part of the grid going forward. It's going to around for decades if not the next century.
I agree that this haphazard approach causes problems such as extra costs and curtailment in the system. All the more reason to have a plan in order to avoid that.
The modelling can work. But, if governments won't use the modelling and let politics get in the way then there's not much point having a model, is there ?
