rookwood discovery

Looks like my earlier estimate of 400-1000 bopd with artificial lift was pretty accurate at the low end ...

That said, the fact they got only 13.5 barrels in the string leads me to think that 400 bopd with artificial lift is going to be about as good as it gets - 300 bopd is more probable.

The field is going to be closer to 1mmbl than 12 mmbl - I'll stick with my earlier guess of 2 mmbl recoverable ... note that starting at 400 bopd means once natural decline kicks in, you start to have to drill more wells (ie more capex).

But 300 bopd gives Oilex cash flow, and the fact that they've actually found oil in Rookwood will upgrade nearby prospects ... my understanding of the geology is that Rookwood is 'donut' shaped - it's a four-way dip with thin sandstone on the top. Therefore, it will probably need another 3-5 stepouts anyway.

As far as share price goes, $3 a share, no way. Maintaining 40-50 cents, sure.

Most importantly, to do a future drilling program somewhere, they'll probably only need to issue another 10-20m shares at about 35 cents.

Ian Whitchurch