ROTH Capital target 20c, page-8

Here's a couple of extracts from a presentation made by IMU at the time it acquired the Biolife Science technology (ie HER-Vaxx). It was when Axel Hoos and Paul Hopper became involved in the company.

The presentation was made in December 2013.

HER-Vaxx Phase II trial, was to have covered 78 patients and been completed in 2015. As we know, it took until January this year to complete recruitment of just 36 patients. So a trial that was to have taken two years has so far taken seven. This is why Roth use a discount rate of 30%. One could argue even this is aggressive.

Its also why the market ascribes little value to Vaxinia and CHECKVaxx. If they follow a similar timeline to HER-Vaxx, they may never be commercialised.

The touted "immediate returns" from Big Pharma (up-front fees, milestone payments, royalties) have all failed to materialise. This is why the company has gone from having around 1 billion shares / options on issue in late 2013 to over 5.4 billion today. The number of shares on issue is a proxy for "failure to deliver on time". I suspect that none of the shareholders in late 2013 thought that their shareholding would be diluted by a factor of 5 before any revenue had been received. In fact, if they believed in the company's message, they would have expected an "exit" in 2-3 years.

The company may have a rosy future, but given the slow progress and failure to execute any of the Big-Pharma revenue deals, the discount to potential blue sky is understandable (and $1.60 is a hue of sky I've never seen ...).