Newcomers and oldies alike should keep very much in front of mind the conservative assumptions used in this Roth Capital valuation.
As mentioned previously Roth has come in at the very low end of valuations with their financial modelling.
1. A discount rate of 30% is used. Unusually high “proxy for risk” in a very low interest rate environment
Halving the discount rate to 15% would virtually double the valuation to 40c .
2. They have not included any revenue for Vaxinia, only CheckVaxx as far as CF33 is concerned.
3. They have used minimal numbers for market penetration / sales in early years across the board.
Lets be brutally honest here, if the interim data seen with HerVaxx is replicated across the BCell platform, monoclonal antibody drugs like Herceptin, Opdivo, Keytruda, Tecentriq, Yervoy, Perjeta, will become obsolete very quickly. Didn’t the IDMC already mention it would be unethical to keep giving patients chemo alone, when HerVaxx shows no side effects, zero toxicity and halves the risk of death?
4. They have used 5 years of sales royalty to arrive at their NPV. Why not use 12years?
Doubling of sales figures to still low market penetration and pushing out to 2037, the life of all patents, would see this valuation 4X higher again. ...
$1.60 valuation very easy to justify still using valid assumptions.
Read the the fine print “ Commercial success outside of these financially modeled programs would serve as potential upside to our valuation”
And that number multiplied out to give a market cap size is still woefully inadequate when you start considering the valuations for recent acquisitions for biotechs with lesser pipelines and lesser revolutionary / paradigm shifting/ game changing products.
Stay focussed on the pipeline we have, dissect the numbers above to realise 20c is only just a starting point, and when new recognition is given the valuation will be many multiples higher from here.
Really is quite laughable the childlike “dummy spit” mentality of the bottom end of the market.
Have been a shareholder for more than four years and the progress made is absolutely genuine . Yes the market cap has grown from $30 million to $500 million, perhaps this period of stagnation is just some clumsy growing pains, and like I mentioned in a post not so long ago a portion of the market values their profit in hand far more than future upside returns from playing the long game. Good luck to them finding another Disallowed in the making. Personally I’m keeping all options open for the big picture outcome. Banking on private conversations I’ve been fortunate to have with Axel Hoos, Yuman Fong, and Leslie Chong.
It is bizarre to think AH said in public 16 months ago he thought the company was worth at least 12-15c per share back then, prior to HerVaxx interim data, prior to PD1 Vaxx getting its IND approval and passing its first human dosing safety test.
And here we are still at 9.5 ... unbelievable, yet a screaming opportunity to be taken advantage of.
Repeat... Maintain Focus on the pipeline, the sum of the parts is huge. Ignore the B/s noise pollution.
Good luck to all .
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