rough estimate of what its worth eps n pe wise

Based on 3000 tonnes copper

using copper at $3.50USD and costs of say $2.00 (they reckon costs will go down to $1.30 and now theyre $2.70 last qtr due to less ore going thru/third party ore)


3000 * 2200 = 6.6mill pounds of copper

6.6mill tonnes * 3.85(AUD per tonne copper price) = 25.4mill revenue per qtr

revenue thus is 101.6mill per year

At a cost of $2.00US (which is $2.20 AUD using current exchange rate)

6.6mill pounds * $2.20 = 14.5mill costs per qtr

for the year: 58mill costs

So revenue of 101.6mill - 58mill = 43.6mill

tax is neligible for at least a cple of years

So 43.6mill/1000mill (equity capital: shares + options is approx 1billion)

EPS = 4.4 cents per share

give a PE of 5: we get 22 cents

give a PE of 7: we get 31 cents

give a PE of 10: we get 44 cents

this doesnt take in2 consideration that they want to

a) produce 4000tonnes+ of copper after 3000 tonnes is accomplished in april (2months away)

b) the GOLD sitting in the ground which should be a revenue source in 2009

lets say they start producing 70,000 ounces sometime in 2009:

70,000 ounces * 900USD per ounce = 63millUS in revenue, or 70mill AUD

say all up cost is 600 AUD, making them net 300AUD per ounce,

we get 21mill in profit from the gold

Add that to 101.6mill: so we get approx 123mill profit

EPS: 123mill/1000mill = 12.3cents per share!

this EPS figure doesnt even include 4000 tonnes of copper which theyre saying theyll upgrade to.

12.3 cents in earnings per each share * PE of 5 = 62cents

At PE 7 : 12.3 * 7 = 86cents

*** Note theyll prob be producing 4000 tonnes of copper or more in a couple of years plus 100,000 ounces of gold

the share price will be $1 in a couple of years thus if they can produce at optimal levels 4000-5000 tonnes of copper and 100,000 ounces of gold

*** U can do a NPV using discounted cash-flows for each year and discount back the earnings of each year to adjust for 'RISK', but ull reach a similar conclusion albeit the overall value discounted back by 15-20% for risk.

All in all, TMR is just starting out now.

If we can get a full qtr at optimal production of 1500 tonnes like management are saying, I think the share price should get re-rated.

In april , if we hit the 3000 tonne per qtr milestone for the april/may/june months, then we'll see renewed confidence provided no glitches

******** Guys , plse note that TMR IS MAKING MONEY EVEN AT THE LOWER THROUGHPUT LEVEL AND 3RD PARTY ORE SCENARIO.

Management have said that things are at optimal pace now. 1500 tonnes should be produced this qtr

From april, for the full years ahead we'll see 3000 tonnes

or 4.4cents per share

4.4 cents per share, even if we discount back 15% for 'risk' is 3.75cents per share

Thus taking ONLY 3000 tonnes per year copper in2 consideration, the shares worth roughly 20cents on a PE of 5 going forward

**** Based on just 4000 tonnes copper and no gold :

4000 * 2200 (tonnes converted to pounds) * 1.65AUD net revenue (3.50USD - $2USDcosts; 90AUD:USD)

= 14.52mill per qtr

= 58mill per year

58/1000mill (shares + options)

= 5.8cents per share

PE 5 : 29cents value

PE 7 : 41cents

PE 10 in a bull market: 58cents

this is just based on upcoming copper proddy @ 3.50USD prices and $2USD costs and 1billion share capital

So just based on copper its worth 30cents if we use PE 5

*** Till this 4000 tonnes pr qtr happens theres 'risk'
So discount back using a discount rate as high as 20% and you still get 25cents per share valuation just based on the coppper production profile in the near future discounted back 20% (taking off 20% off valuation till this eventuates)

So by my book just based on copper its worth 30cents or 25cents (discounting back for risk till that happens) and this is using a bear market PE 5!

market just needs to see 1500 per qtr proddy at reduced costs. In april costs will reduce with double the thruput from the mine with better quality ore and better grades. At 4000 tonnes, costs will go down further.

third party ore they bought increased the costs obviously.

this is fundamentally GROSSLY undervalued, as even if you dont include the GOLD, on a PE 5 its worth 25-30cents based on 4000 tonnes copper and using a discount for 'risk'

price should head closer to this 25-30cents as production increases to 3000tonnes in april, costs go down, and heading into 4000 tonnes at a future date.

right now its HALF this 25-30cents.