I am no expert, but had the numbers crunched using AI and it looks pretty good.

Some food for thought below:

Regis Resources Valuation Analysis: Impact of Gold Price Scenarios

This analysis examines the potential valuation of Regis Resources based on its latest quarterly report, considering two gold price scenarios: $3,000/oz and $3,600/oz. While this assessment provides valuable insights, it's important to note that a comprehensive valuation would require additional information not contained in a single quarterly report.

Key Points from the Quarterly Report

1. Production and Costs:
   • FY24 gold production: 417.7koz
   • FY24 All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC): $2,286/oz
   • FY25 guidance: 350-380koz at AISC of $2,440-$2,740/oz
2. Financial Position:
   • Cash and bullion position: $295M as of June 30, 2024
   • Strong cash generation: $166M operating cash flow in Q4
3. Growth Projects:
   • McPhillamys Gold Project: Definitive Feasibility Study completed
     • NPV5.5% of $451M post-tax at $3,000/oz gold price
     • Average annual production of 187koz when at steady state
   • Underground expansion at Duketon
4. Reserves and Resources:
   • Group Ore Reserves: 3.4Moz
   • Group Mineral Resources: 6.9Moz

Valuation Methodology

Our valuation approach considers three key factors:

1. Cash Flow Valuation: A simplified DCF model based on production guidance and cost estimates.
2. Net Asset Value (NAV): Sum of estimated values for operating mines, development projects, exploration potential, and net cash.
3. Market Comparables: Typical trading multiples for Australian gold producers.

Scenario 1: Gold Price at $3,000/oz

Cash Flow Valuation

• Assumptions: 365koz annual production, $2,590/oz AISC, 10-year mine life, 10% discount rate
• Estimated NPV: $1.5-2.0 billion

Net Asset Value

• Operating mines: $1.5-2.0 billion
• McPhillamys project: $451M
• Exploration upside: $200-300M
• Net cash: $295M
• Total NAV estimate: $2.4-3.0 billion

Valuation Range

• Low end: $1.92 billion (0.8x NAV)
• High end: $3.60 billion (1.2x NAV)
• Midpoint valuation: $2.76 billion

Scenario 2: Gold Price at $3,600/oz

Cash Flow Valuation

• Updated NPV estimate: $2.5-3.0 billion

Net Asset Value

• Operating mines: $2.5-3.0 billion
• McPhillamys project: ~$850M
• Exploration upside: $300-400M
• Net cash: $295M
• Total NAV estimate: $3.95-4.55 billion

Valuation Range

• Low end: $3.95 billion (1.0x NAV)
• High end: $6.83 billion (1.5x NAV)
• Midpoint valuation: $5.39 billion

Key Considerations

1. Increased Profitability: At $3,600/oz, the margin per ounce increases from $410 to $1,010, significantly boosting cash flow.
2. McPhillamys Upside: The project shows strong leverage to gold price, with potential for even higher value at $3,600/oz.
3. Reserve Potential: Higher gold prices could convert more resources to reserves, potentially extending mine life.
4. Exploration Value: The company's exploration portfolio becomes more valuable at higher gold prices.
5. Market Sentiment: A $3,600/oz gold environment would likely drive positive sentiment towards gold stocks, potentially leading to higher valuation multiples.

Risks and Uncertainties

• Gold price volatility
• Execution risk on McPhillamys development
• Potential for cost inflation, especially in high gold price scenarios
• Geopolitical and regulatory risks
• Sustainability of high gold prices
• Increased government interest (royalties, taxes) in high gold price scenarios

Conclusion

This analysis demonstrates the significant impact of gold price on Regis Resources' valuation. At $3,000/oz gold, the company's estimated value ranges from $1.92 billion to $3.60 billion. This increases dramatically to a range of $3.95 billion to $6.83 billion at $3,600/oz gold.

It's crucial to note that these are rough estimates based on limited information. The gold mining sector is highly volatile, and valuations can change rapidly with fluctuations in gold price. A more comprehensive analysis, including detailed financial modeling, peer comparisons, and market condition assessments, would be necessary for making investment decisions.