rough valuation, page-19

I have seen a summary of cumulative production to Feb 2011 (Euroz report 6 April)

The most striking figure was Weston, the 3,000 ft lateral drilled by TCEI in the Austin chalk and fracced by Hilcorp.

For the first 10.3 months of production, the average was 755 boepd.

Monthly production was clearly falling fast: the last month on the table seemed to add only 214boepd, down from 310 boepd for the previous month, but it was one of the early fracs.

Nevertheless, an average for the 1st 12 months of 600 boepd looks reasonable though production (without further work) for the 2nd year will average a lot less.

Looking at the prospectus filed with the TSX (pages 50 & 21), drilling plans for 2011 are Longhorn (30 @ 31.9%), S/L (9 @ 15.7%), Ipanema (3 @ 36.4%) and Excelsior (18 @ 9.1%) = 22.85 net wells.

2011 production will depend upon the timing of the drilling of each of the acreages.

Assume that all acreages are drilled proportionately. Assume a 1 month delay from spud to production and that 1/12th of the drilling will not produce until 2012.

Average production: 22.85 x 11/12 /2 x 600 = 6,284 boepd

That is gross of royalty etc

That's about 4,700 boepd net of royalty average 2011 production subject to negative adjustment for fraccing logjam, pipeline connection delays etc.

AUT does not expect to pay tax (other than state taxes) for 2011 (prospectus page 36).