rough valuation, page-2

I'll open comments by saying that it's just plain wrong! PE have little purpose for AUT (and other resource stocks), it's primarily about NPV.

There is a reserves report out which calculates the NPV that can be used as a starting point. Adjustments can be made to recovery (roughly increases NPV at 2x increase in reserves), possible tighter well spacing (double the spacing doesn't equal double the value due to the time value of money), well maintenance dropping from 20k to 12k increases NPV by about $400m pre tax (current costs are higher due to hold by production drilling vs development), oil price can also be adjusted at an NPV factor of about 2, add cash (about 25 cents ps)

Also note that the NPV in reserves report is pre corporate tax!

Hope this clarifies a correct way to input data to value AUT.

Impact