rough valuation, page-6

These are my valuations - for 2011 CY end

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Wells and performance -

NET wells to AUT > 15.8
Average BOEPD per well > 600
15.8 x 600 = 9480 BOEPD

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EBITDA -

Production > 336 days a year
$95 Oil

9480 x $95 = $900,600 a day

336 x $900,600 = $302,601,600 (for the year)

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Costs -
Maintanence - 20,000 x 15.8 = $316,000 p.a
Opex - 2 million p.a
Capex - 6.7 million (costs to drill well) x 15.8 = 105,900,000

Total expenditure = $108,216,000

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EBIT -

$302,602,600(EBITDA) - $108,216,000(total expenditure) = $194,386,600

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NET proit -

$194,386,600 - %40 (tax & royalties) = $116,631,960

Net Profit = $116,631,960

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On this net profit figure we are currently trading at a PE of 9.6

EPS = 116,631,960 * 410,000,000 (SOI) = EPS .30c

PE Ratio = $2.88 * .30 = PE Ratio of 9.6


These are the figures taking into acount a higher PE ratio

PE of 15 = MC of 1.75 Billion, SP $4.50
PE of 20 = MC of 2.33 Billion, SP $6.00
PE of 25 = MC of 2.91 Billion, SP $7.50

Notice that at a PE ratio of 15 is right in line with EUROZ and GMP with their valuations, just something i noticed.

At the end of the day this is just a guide and it does'nt take into account upside that can be added by the likes of - higher EUR's, tighter well spacing, higher condensate ratio's, NGL's, new frac technology, higher oil price, reduction in well costs and so on. But is does give a benchmark price that you can go of to see if you are still in a growth stock or the stock your in is reaching its peak. Its pretty clear to me AUT still has a lot of growth left in it and the factors that could expotentially increase the value of AUT are numerous.

This is'nt investment advice.