ICN 0.00% 0.6¢ icon energy limited

rough value

  1. 5,143 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1157
    One other interesting item came out of the weekly report. That was estimated recoverable reserves of between .9tcf and 1.25tcf. If you assume 1 tcf , a gas price of $3.25 per mcf (a thousand cu ft), that would give you a gross undiscounted value as follows:
    1000,000,000 mcf @ $3.25
    which is $3.25 billion .
    Now we know that these CBM projects are expensive to develop with literally hundreds of dev wells to be drilled and cased and made ready for production. Then there would be ongoing opex which would not be cheap having to maintain that many wells. Then admin, royalties etc.
    Lets assume $1 billion for development , and another $1 billion for opex over the field life.(This would be enough to drill and operate at least 250 wells, and dont forget they may be building their own rig/s). Now lets deduct another $400 million for admin , royalty etc.
    That leaves an undiscounted pre-tax revenue of $850 million and after tax maybe $600 million.
    Over a fifteen to twenty year field life this may discount back to around $150 million or thereabouts as a very rough net present value.
    This compares to the current measly $15 million mkt cap.
    So, if ICN is properly promoted , properly managed then the shares should get up to at least 50 cents just on the strength of the one CBM permit.
    These are just my back of the envelope numbers to get a very rough value. Do not rely on them but do work your own numbers out or tell me where you would make a different estimate.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add ICN (ASX) to my watchlist
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.