I think Shim is close to the mark. ACAD have already committed to hefty long term payments of $400+mill which would be void in any take over. They have previously paid $4 per share for Neu thereby indicating their initial valuation, so a lowish bid would be near cost neutral. A lot cheaper than additional cash payments for the ROW rights to Trof alone.While an attempt at full t/o would command a premium they might be content to protect their interest with just a majority holding, delaying a final bid until results are to hand and they have arranged an affiliation or take over from a major pharma with international marketing. This would lessen their risks but a partial or full share offer would probably appeal to many Neu holders as their involvement would still hold. Fun times ahead.
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