There are a lot of things I would like to know but have no clue about. Presently, ASM is sourcing 3rd party oxides to process.... does that mean there is still ample supply? What is the projection for demand/supply of oxides... at what point will supply shortfalls appear? If we had a handle on that we might have a better idea about how urgent it is to bring other mines (like Dubbo) on stream.
In the example of the EV companies we have seen a change in business models. Major battery cell manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers are buying stakes in upstream raw material suppliers. Previously the downstream users were happy enough to negotiate long term offtakes but now they are vertically integrating with those suppliers.
When I look at Hyundai's stated plans (and the uncertainties associated with Chinese supply chains) I think there is much more involved than Hyundai simply tendering to build ASM's processing plant. I am only joining dots and perhaps they do not join up but it seems logical that Hyundai will need to lock in a guaranteed REE supply if it hopes to confidently provide large scale wind turbine projects and fulfill its desire to be a major EV manufacturer. If that guess is correct then Hyundai has a vested interest in seeing ASM's Dubbo project proceed. To that end I think ASM is very likely to get favourable financing terms.... some combination of direct investment at the project level, a long term offtake agreement and help with securing long term debt.
The point you make that the share price reflects the doubt is very debatable. Just looking at the latest short position in ASM it has risen to 6.24% (up 1.19% in a single day ... Monday this week) which puts ASM as currently the 26th most shorted company on the ASX. If the SP was dropping due to a more usual trading environment perhaps it might be held up as strong evidence... but not under these circumstances.
As with yourself, I thought the timeline for financing would be quicker than it turned out to be. The change in the design of the processing plant and the revision of the framework agreement slowed everything down. It is a wait and see how things proceed. However, the changed framework agreement now gives greater scope for Hyundai to meaningfully participate at the project level which is what I hope was the underlying reason. Time will tell.
ASM Price at posting:
$2.63 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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