The financial metrics are very impressive. They stopped the sensitivity analysis at a POG of AUD$2,700 in the presentation but where will the POG sit, realistically, in the medium term? Many believe that the fruits of money printing are going to rev up the POG very soon and I agree. The macro environment is very supportive of a rising POG.
Realistically, has the company potentially overcooked the production ounces with such a low percentage of resource ounces has been included in forecast production? I would say there is probably more upside than downside risk. The presentation also clearly indicated that this initial iteration was a base case scenario which is likely to improve as they move towards a PFS with the benefit of additional drilling. With a little more production ounces and a minimally higher POG we are moving towards AUD$1b of project EBITDA. That is serious probable cashflow.
I also do not believe that financing $130m (Capex + WC) is an overly demanding to raise compared to much larger amounts for other projects and looks like small change on a relative basis. The existing infrastructure is invaluable. The payback period is also reasonable as you would expect 20-40% equity.
The RXL share price did not jump today but having said that my entire Watchlist for gold stocks is looking pretty beaten up all-round at the moment although I expect this to reverse soon enough.
RXL looks very undervalued at the moment. If the numbers have merit I would not be surprised to see corporate activity entering the RXL space. This is the first occasion that the company has released financial forecasts, albeit high level numbers, and the numbers are impressive. I would expect companies of scale with access to cash and looking for M&A opportunities to have RXL firmly on their radar in the near future.
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Last
29.5¢ |
Change
0.005(1.72%) |
Mkt cap ! $216.4M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
29.0¢ | 30.0¢ | 29.0¢ | $167.7K | 568.8K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 149119 | 29.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
29.5¢ | 359 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 149119 | 0.290 |
7 | 136559 | 0.285 |
4 | 245404 | 0.280 |
9 | 444490 | 0.275 |
14 | 410976 | 0.270 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.295 | 359 | 3 |
0.300 | 300934 | 9 |
0.305 | 143208 | 8 |
0.310 | 209042 | 10 |
0.315 | 12599 | 1 |
Last trade - 13.16pm 01/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Dr. Hartley Atkinson, MD
Dr. Hartley Atkinson
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