With reference to my above post back in mid-April - in part...

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MasterStrategist

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18/07/18

15:22

Post #: 34424817
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Originally posted by Barg ↑

I note this morning that the ramifications of our Banking Royal Commission have been reported on Americas Bloomberg. No small thing. Like it or not, and regardless of whether some can live on the smell of an oily rag, the big four banks (and probably the peripheral banking players) have already instigated tighter lending rules to allow for the reality of higher cost of living expenses. That is now fact regardless of any ones opinion on the rights or wrongs. Its a done deal. And while analysts at UBS are predicting a fall of circa 35/40% in mortgage approvals as a result, the more dovish are expecting a fall of 5/10%, sighting population growth due to immigration, and low interest rates. And while the latter might bear some credibility it is of note that the our beleaguered government is coming under considerable pressure to half immigration to allow for our infrastructure to catch up, and interest rates are forecast to rise. It is worth noting here that excessive immigration levels and electricity prices are now front and centre of any future Federal election. So given the Liberal government is on the nose in the poles and their continual failure in rectifying the energy problem, they might see a reduction in immigration as a means to garner votes. Then there is the Labor party on the opposite side of the fence with a policy of reducing negative gearing. Either way, both scenarios present significant risk to the property sector going forward. Furthermore, the mortgage stress rate is already on the rise, given mortgagees are overleveraged, some would say - up to the eyeballs.
In conclusion I put it to the readers here that this has been the longest property boom ever experienced in this country. It won't and can't continue forever. To think otherwise ignores everything we know about economics and business cycles.

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With reference to my above post back in mid-April - in part concerning immigration, I note increased media coverage on same surrounding up-coming By-Elections. It is now on the agenda with both major Parties, given poles point to circa 70% of respondents calling for a partial cut due to the lag in infrastructure. Our Prime Minister has admitted he'll now look at it. Should a significant cut in immigration come into force there may be negative consequences for the property market.
As an aside, this post has nothing to do with racism, and I would be disappointed to see a repeat of the xenophobic posts that resulted when this subject was last mentioned. I'm sighting the current excess of immigration purely on the grounds of lagging infrastructure and natural resource stress.
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