royalty fantasy numbers, page-5

Hi Guys

I agree that some of the royalty estimates here are too high - can't see it being over $50m.

We know that Glaxo are manufacturing at full production, so we know that for the foreseeable future, quarterly royalties should be at least $35-$40m.

Other wildcards I can think of that will hopefully provide an additional bonus over and above the original 190m max capacity stated by Glaxo:

- The Simcere Pharma group in China having begun manufacture of Relenza via a voluntary license from Glaxo. Does anyone know what this means in terms of royalties to Biota? Is this a heavily discounted production with discounted royalties flowing through to Biota, or is it Glaxo that are bearing the cost?

- stated Govt stockpile rebalancing of Tamiflu:Relenza from 80:20 toward 50:50 over time

- the above rebalance should happen quicker than expected, with less Tamiflu being ordered (as stocks expire) as a result of increasing resistance.