Hi Jojo,
My "optimistic" estimate is based on comments from GSK two quarterlies ago where they started production would increase significantly. All comes down to demand, and the last quarterly didn't give much guidance as to orders or production, perhaps due to issues surrounding governments handing back excess vaccine orders. PR games.
Anyhow, I'm expecting a solid performance. A poor performance is possible or the reasons you have stated, I hope the world is listening to developments and buying all the Relenza production available.
LANI must be getting close to a deal as well, as is approval in Japan and associated potential orders.
An exciting year for Biota.
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