Not sure about 'the middle' of the drawdown, considering the...

Not sure about 'the middle' of the drawdown, considering the sellers only started up a couple of days ago. Going by previous drawdowns, we could be around this range until the end of next week unless there's some agreement with Duchess that the drawdown window ends before Eastman gives his presentation (RRL normally announce news before presentations if they have any- such as the OilBarrel conference last November when they announced the 2 billion OIP estimate the same day they were speaking there). If he has anything to say beyond what we know already, it'll just be mobilisation for Georgia news (nothing on our other projects as the presentation is strictly for Georgia business). There's really no way of knowing when the drawdown will finish until we get an announcement though- except that we know it can't be longer than 2 weeks- hence the end of next week limit, as then we will have had 2 trading weeks since this started).

The takeover of LEO by AOI, if it had any effect, will lready be priced in now as everyone knows it's going to happen. What isn't priced in is whether the takeover is a green light for Puntland to go ahead- if we get rig mobilisation shortly afterwards then yes, we'll see an upwards movement in share price, though AOI will be looking to farm down their 60% Puntland interest to 40%- there was something in one of the financial newspapers that they'd been approached by a middle eastern company looking to take on a slice- not sure whether this is true or not but if so it's at least a vote of confidence that Puntland is going ahead from another oil company. The only way that Puntland will be seriously priced in though will be that announcement that we've all been waiting a very long time for- rig mobilisation. I don't know what AOI's plans are but if they want to spud this well by the 27th July they're going to have to get a move on- we're 4 months away from that date and it's going to take about 3 months to mobilise the rig. So we're looking at April- or at the very most, May, to see Puntland news.

We'll know when mobilisation is taking place even if it's not officially announced. A rig passing through Puntland is bound to be picked up by the local press, and within a few hours one of those reports will be posted online, which will in turn be noticed by a shareholder, and plastered all over the various bulletin boards IMO. It'd be quite difficult to keep it a secret for long.