Missed out? I was never planning to be in for Puntland anyway,...

Missed out? I was never planning to be in for Puntland anyway, it's a spin of the roulette wheel effectively. I'll leave it to others to gamble their capital on an exploratory drill bit. I'm happy enough with the risk profile when it comes to appraisal wells and the like, but exploration? No, definitely not. As anyone who's followed oil exploration/production stocks for a while knows, failure is more common than success when drilling in unknown or underexplored areas.

RMP's overvaluation is clear as day. The fact it keeps rising doesn't mean it isn't any less overvalued (on the contrary, in fact). They have 206,681,755 shares in issue, which makes the market cap at 37p to be £76.5m. The target is 1 billion barrels, of which RMP have 20% (200 million), and standard recovery would be about 30% of this. 60 million barrels recoverable.

Do you actually think you're going to get $5 a barrel? For some comparison- XEL, which has already found oil in the North Sea (a politically benign place) and will be starting first production this year, is trading at $6 a barrel. GKP, who have proved up between 8 billion and 12 billion barrels in Kurdistan (admittedly a politically dangerous place, but no moreso than Puntland) are trading at less than $1 a barrel, BECAUSE OF POLITICAL CONCERNS. $5 was a takeover priced in the Tullow/Heritage Uganda deal several years ago, but that was paying a substantial takeover premium, and RMP are nowhere near that stage yet. No one issues takeover offers after 1 well, it requires plenty of appraisal first.

£76.5m is $120m. So the reserves are already priced at $2 a barrel. And that's assuming a CoS of 100%, which it certainly is not. I'm not convinced you'd get that much more than $2 a barrel on a strike tbh, maybe $3 tops. What would you get if the well doesn't come in? We've already seen the market doesn't think much of the Georgia assets, and the second Puntland well wouldn't have loads of confidence around it if the first isn't commercial (perhaps unjustifiably, but that's the way the market will see it).

Of course, I can't really take into account people's stupidity. Of course it's possible investors will push the price into silly amounts on a strike, despite the fact they could get more oil for less market cap elsewhere. But in the long term, it'll go back to its real value relative to others in the same market.

Well done to all RMP investors who are in profit right now. But just remember that knowing when to sell is just as important as knowing when to buy. RMP, on a risk/rewarded basis, is a sell right now as far as I'm concerned.