CAPITAL STRUCTURE:
Ordinary shares- 468 million
Convertible notes- 137 million (convert at 0.50)
Listed option- 51 million (convert at 0.60)
In the money unlisted options- 5 million (~0.75 average)
Current share price: 1.09
Market cap (fully diluted): 721 (+ 100 million equity injection)
Cash: 33 million
Debt: 168 million
Enterprise value: 756 million
OPERATIONS:
Annual production (at current rates): ~ 320,000 ounces
Cash cost: 856/ounce
Reserves + resources: 10.4 million ounces
Prospects for growth (subjective):
Syama (with largest resource estimate) has the highest cash costs - will be highly dependent on getting its own power supply (will reduce costs by 25%). Golden Pride (best cash costs) has 2 year mine life.
2011 FY guesstimates:
Earnings from operations: 160 million
Capex, interest, D&A: 30 million (low estimate)
Tax: 39 million (at 30% but unlikely to be this high this FY)
NPAT: 91 million (this is on the high side, as capex & D&A significantly higher than above estimate)
Using a 12% required return - you get a valuation of 1.15/share
10% required return: 1.38/share.
I don't hold, but would look to buy if the power issues at Syama get sorted out. All juniors bar MML are ridiculously cheap at the moment.
Comments welcome
Mal
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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3 | 53599 | 0.815 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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