CAPITAL STRUCTURE:Ordinary shares- 468 millionConvertible notes-...

CAPITAL STRUCTURE:
Ordinary shares- 468 million
Convertible notes- 137 million (convert at 0.50)
Listed option- 51 million (convert at 0.60)
In the money unlisted options- 5 million (~0.75 average)

Current share price: 1.09
Market cap (fully diluted): 721 (+ 100 million equity injection)

Cash: 33 million
Debt: 168 million

Enterprise value: 756 million

OPERATIONS:
Annual production (at current rates): ~ 320,000 ounces
Cash cost: 856/ounce
Reserves + resources: 10.4 million ounces
Prospects for growth (subjective):
Syama (with largest resource estimate) has the highest cash costs - will be highly dependent on getting its own power supply (will reduce costs by 25%). Golden Pride (best cash costs) has 2 year mine life.

2011 FY guesstimates:
Earnings from operations: 160 million
Capex, interest, D&A: 30 million (low estimate)
Tax: 39 million (at 30% but unlikely to be this high this FY)
NPAT: 91 million (this is on the high side, as capex & D&A significantly higher than above estimate)

Using a 12% required return - you get a valuation of 1.15/share

10% required return: 1.38/share.

I don't hold, but would look to buy if the power issues at Syama get sorted out. All juniors bar MML are ridiculously cheap at the moment.

Comments welcome
Mal