HAW 0.00% 5.9¢ hawthorn resources limited

I just spent 20 min reading over the evaluation of Haw by GRI...

  1. 117 Posts.
    I just spent 20 min reading over the evaluation of Haw by GRI and in my oppinion its rubbish. There are a heap of assumptions that are just way too broad. To be fair they can only work with what they have but some things just stood out to me.

    The valuation gave a range of HAW between $22.5 to $49mil.

    The low end of $22mil was based on "exploration expenditure multipliers!" Im a civil engineer by trade not a mining engineer or a financial guru but i have some experience in estimates. They have come up with 22.5 mil by saying that 7.5mil has been spent on exploration which has shown positive results and that there is a good chance of a mine being built in the future to mine the resource. Thats it. Thats how they get $22.5mil. Why not lick your finger and put it in the air. To me the bottom limit is not worth talking about.

    The upper limit of $49mil was derived from comparison of the sale of similar ore bodies. Through a heap of broad assumtions they came up with a price of $0.253/t of Fe. Some important notes on this are as follows:

    1) NMDC paid $0.318/t which was a very low ball offer compared to the SKR evaluation (which i would give alot more credit to). IMO LCY accepted NMDC's offer primarily due to the company making potentional NMDC brought to the table. The "actual value" of the ore would have been higher than $0.318/t.

    2) $0.253/t was the average price of the ore in previous sales after some conservative assumptions. Why have they used the AVERAGE cost of ore to set the UPPER limits of the companies worth!?

    3) The LCY/NMDC deal was based on an evaluation of the jorced resource with an allowance for the potential upgrades. When talking about the NMDC/LCY deal this report based the $/t of Fe on 15% cutt off shown in the SKR report yet they used the 25% cutt off for the inferred resource
    when calculating the figure of $49mil.

    They are just some of the more important errors in this report that jumped out at me after a quick read. This looks like a complete joke of a report.

    Sorry for the long winded post. Just thought i'd share my thoughts.

    All IMO
 
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