I reckon Kevin Rudd has started on the come back trail with a...

I reckon Kevin Rudd has started on the come back trail with a cunning plan aided and abetted by his loyal supporter Bruce Hawker.

Rumours have been around that Rudd's numbers have risen in caucus but they are still not enough. He has said he will not challenge so what happens?

- MPs have gone back to their electorates where most probably people are giving Labor MPs an earful about the CT and the constant arrival of boats
- Labor morale is low but will go even lower if the next round of polls show the primary vote has dropped.
- Labor Mps in marginal seats will be panicking.

Then

- Out of the blue Rudd's wife is interviewed by Sydney Morning Herald.
- She says that for the good of the country, "we would serve". Note that Gillard can't blame her for saying this.

When parliament returns in August, caucus will meet again. At that point they may beg Rudd to return. And he may have the numbers to oust Gillard.

If this happens I imagine that he would go to an election a couple of months later, having rejigged the carbon tax and attempted to solve the boat people problem. I doubt whether he will take much notice of the greens and their objections