rules for investing in lynas

I thought the following was a good guide for investing in Lynas shares:

1. If management give a timeline for anything double it and then double it again

2. If management give an output projection halve it and then halve it again

3. If management give a cost projection double it and then double it again

4. If there is any speculation about a positive event for the company, then it is already in the price and more, because Lynas retail investors are an optimistic bunch

5. If there is any speculation about a negative event for the company, then it is not already in the price, because Lynas retail investors are an optimistic bunch

6. If you are trying to make money off Lynas using technical analysis you have less than a 5% chance (average for day traders) of making money. This is because the trades are way too crowded with everyone trying to do the same thing (so net of commission and financing costs 95%+ of people will lose)

7. The only way to make money in Lynas is by ignoring the herd and waiting for a scorched earth valuation (i.e. once all of the speculators have been forced to cut their positions) to go long the stock

8. Lynas on a long term basis (likely too long term for the majority of people) will be a $2 plus stock, unfortunately before it gets to $2 it is likely going to go sub 50c as things wash out properly. Hence if you want to make money in Lynas you have to be able to take volatility (i.e. not use leverage) and be prepared to hold it for the long term

Good luck to all...