hi guys im new to this site, and i have some comments regarding GDN.
After reading a few points regarding GDN not having any hype this time around and that things are different in regards to potential id like to point out a couple of things. As per the last announcement we are currently just over 5000', have a quick check and compare the share price now and back during when pb2 was at the same stage. It was currently trading at 5c! so we are already ahead here. The run has not begun yet, we will need to get closer to ismay before any substantial move, now is the time to accumulate as the chart suggests is occuring (consolidation at 5.6-6c)
You can also expect the same movements with the share price as we have not been diltuted much since pb2. Back then we had just over 400million shares and now we have 460million, not much difference. GDN hit 15c on ismay gas shows, expect the same this time around. There is a greater chance of hitting a similar gas show than not as both wells encountered the same gas show, and this well is not that far away from pb1. Chance are very good for this to occur IMO. Why would the market get excited this time around after 2 failures you say? Well aside from the fact that this is a production well which isnt designed for deep hole drilling, GDN are using a directional drilling technique which has had success in flowing wells previously though to be unable to be commercial. Do some research on the ford eagle shale formations and the companies drilling them like AZZ and you will see what i mean. They were able to generate 14.5mmcf from a formation beleived to be unable to flow gas. Though you cannot blindly drill horizontally without drilling a vertical well to fully understand the formation, and guess what, GDN has 2! they should be able to fully understand the ismay formation and avoid the problems with the water table, we should be well above it now seen as this well is much shallower. If GDN has a chance for success this is it IMO and i think the chance would have to be pretty good considering what we know already. This will keep the market interested in my opinion.
The options are the best entry i beleive into GDN, if you consider we got to 15c on an ismay gas show during PB2 this is entirely possible all over again. There was also a option premium of 4c on 20c options last time around, expect the same this time around. VIL, as another comparison, had a 3c premium on their 10c options when the share price was 9.5c. Big gains to be had here with minimal risk. You can get the same exposure on options with less capital and less risk. 100,000 options will set you back $800 right now, so your maximum risk exposure is only $800, but if you but 100,000 heads that will set you back $6000. On a horrible announcement, if GDN goes down 50%, you could lose $3000. So who said options were risky???! Potential gains are awesome though, if we do hit 15c (which happened before) the options could be worth 6c with a 3c premium meaning a 650% gain, while the heads will net you 150%. Like i said there is a very high chance of gas shows coming and if you think the sp will be under 10c you will be mistaken.
So try to do simple things like compare the sp reactions to announcements from pb2, the share price was dead at this point and infact in a downtrend. There are many disgruntled shareholders here who dont trust GDN as they have lost money, but if you just try to understand what they are doing here you will be surprised and think..hmm maybe they do have a shot this time around i doubt they would of been able to secure such a large loan without some sort of chance of success, the WCU shares arent enough security to warrant such a large loan as they are too volatile.
Anyways, thats my thoughts, and im looking forward to the next few weeks, lets hope for a placement so the big boys can pump this baby! :)
GDN Price at posting:
11.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
