run starts now?, page-34

Perversely, I had hoped the southward trend would continue, because yesterday I set wheels in motion to raise $30K to buy in at a very low price next week. Although I do not want to own any more TGA, there is always price that tempts me to buy more.

Where I wrote that in calendar 2014 an investor at $2.07 was more likely to make 93 cents than lose 93 cents, I did not elaborate to suggest that if I picked a smaller win-or-lose sum than 93 cents, then the probability of me winning increased, and the time taken to make the win shortens. I am referring to probability in my mind, others would have different probability patterns for TGA.

Fair value may be very different to a buy-in price. In my case the fair-value is circa $3.00 (averaged between two portfolios with different taxation levels), but having so many TGAs, and so little cash in hand, my buy-in price range hovers slightly north of $2.00. The words "range" and "hovers" imply that there is a range in the quantum of shares that I would buy. If the SP dropped below $2.00, I would go to more effort to borrow funds to buy more than $30Ks worth.

On the selling side, the picture is similar - price X would have me sell some shares - price X+ would have me sell more, and so on. Selling has more intellectual complications than buying - estate planning and other taxation considerations come into the picture. In both buying and selling, anticipating what Mr Market will do also comes into the bundle of considerations (considerations that I have historically neglected at great personal cost).

In spite of mentioning TGA, this post has drifted off a TGA-specific theme into the realm of investing notions that are currently enjoying my mindspace.